Energy Information administration (EIA) forecasts that annual gas consumption in countries, which are not members to Organization of Economic Development and Cooperation (OEDC), in particular, China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam will reach 120 billions of cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2050, thereby exceeding production rate of these countries by 50 bcf/d.
Due to this imbalance the countries not members to OEDC will more dependent on import of natural gas.
In accordance with International Energy Outlook 2019 report almost half of forecast growth of natural gas world consumption will fall to Asian countries in the period from 2018 to 2050. To significant degree it is conditional on growth of economic activity, increase in consumer demand and industrial production level. Whereas EIA believes that China by 2050 will consume almost three times more of natural gas than in 2018.
Whereas countries of Asia, which are members to OEDS, will consume not so much of natural gas and will possibly reduce use thereof. For example Japan according to forecasts will reduce consumption thereof by 2050.
In opinion of experts increase of demand for gas in China is related to energy and transport sector.
This growth will be conditional upon increase of demand for electric power as well as upon development of electric power from natural gas, which replaces the coal. The demand in transport sector will be maintained thanks to cargo and railway cargo transportation.
Increase of demand for natural gas in India is explained by experts through increase of goods production. Use of natural gas in industrial sector of India will outstrip industrial sector of China after 2040, they believe in EIA. Also energy consuming production in India is expected, especially production of cast iron and steel, non-metallic minerals and basic chemical substances.
EIA expects that in other countries of Asia not members to OEDC such as Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam the demand for natural gas will grow approximately by 30% during the period from 2018 to 2050 as a result of production growth.
The USA expects that insufficiency of natural gas in countries not members to OEDC will foster growing imbalance in the region. Although EIA expects that by 2050 natural gas production in countries not members to OEDC will increase more than twice, natural gas consumption in the region will grow quicker. As a result greater import of natural gas will be required in order to meet the demand.