Problems related to the operability of the CPC oil pipeline are reaching a new level. Now, not only is the infrastructure of the pipeline system itself under attack by military drones, but also the tankers transporting oil from it.
Meanwhile, due to the disruption in the oil pipeline's operation in January, production fell by 35% and supplies via the CPC pipeline by 45%. At the same time, due to the decline in supplies, CPC Blend oil began to sell at a higher price than the benchmark Brent for the first time in the last year.
Matilda and Harmony were hit
On January 13, drones attacked tankers heading to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal in the Black Sea to load Kazakh oil.
The tanker Matilda, flying the Maltese flag and chartered by the Kazakh shipping company Kazmortransflot, a subsidiary of KazMunayGas (KMG), was attacked. The vessel was 48 km from the CPC berth when it was attacked. There was an explosion, but no subsequent fire.
KMG reported that the tanker was scheduled to be loaded with Kazakh oil at the CPC marine terminal on January 18.
A drone also hit the Liberian-flagged tanker Delta Harmony, which was waiting to be loaded. A fire broke out, but was quickly extinguished. In both cases, the crew was unharmed.
According to Reuters, the second tanker was chartered by Chevron. “The entire crew is safe and the vessel remains stable. It is heading to a safe port and we are coordinating our actions with the vessel operator and relevant authorities,” the American company told the agency.
Tengizchevroil LLP (TCO), in which Chevron owns a 50% stake, said it was aware of the incident in the Black Sea. “We are in contact with the relevant parties and are closely monitoring the situation. The incident has no impact on TCO's operations,” the company said.
It was assumed that Delta Harmony would load Tengiz oil and Matilda would load Karachaganak oil.
It also turned out that both tankers are owned by Greek companies. After the incident, the Greek Ministry of Shipping warned its fleet of the need to review safety measures when entering Russian ports in the Black Sea.
A representative of the Greek company Thenamaris, which operates the Matilda tanker, said that precautions had been stepped up after the incident. The crew was advised to be more vigilant and to move around the deck as little as possible.
Following the attacks on tankers, military insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea have nearly doubled, Reuters reports.
It is not yet known where the drones came from or who is responsible for the attack. The German news agency dpa claims the drones were Ukrainian. Russian authorities share this view.
On January 14, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry said that during emergency meetings with ambassadors from a few European countries, as well as contacts with the American side and other foreign partners, they emphasized the need to take effective measures to ensure the safety of hydrocarbon transportation, including on sea routes.
The ministry noted that the increase in the number of incidents indicates an increase in risks to the functioning of international energy infrastructure and called for joint measures to be developed to prevent such incidents in the future.
CPC suspended oil acceptance
Meanwhile, even before the attacks on tankers, CPC was operating at reduced capacity. At the end of last year, the consortium announced that on December 29, it had suspended oil transshipment until weather conditions normalized and storm warnings were lifted. At the same time, oil acceptance was suspended because the system's oil storage facilities were full.
The company noted that the failure of VPU-2 after an attack by an unmanned boat, as well as the repair work on VPU-3 that had begun earlier, “complicated by the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the winter period,” had “significantly affected the rhythm of oil shipments.”
It should be recalled that on November 29, because of an attack by the Ukrainian military, one of the three VPU terminals through which the CPC transfers oil to tankers was damaged and put out of operation.
Usually, oil is shipped through two pumping stations, while the third one is on standby. At the time of the attack, VPU-3 was undergoing repairs. After the incident, the oil pipeline operator promised to speed up repairs to the third unit in order to resume full operation of the system. However, as it now turns out, the third unit cannot be put into operation either due to storms, so oil is being shipped through a single VPU.
According to Reuters, from January 1 to 12, oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan fell by 35% compared to the December average, with the decline mainly due to restrictions on the CPC's operations.
On January 12, Bloomberg reported that Kazakh oil exports from the key Black Sea port had again fallen sharply.
According to traders, deliveries of CPC Blend Caspian crude in January will amount to 800-900 thousand barrels per day (bpd), which is 45% lower than the shipment volumes forecast in mid-December. Oil prices have risen sharply, and the difference between the two nearest Brent crude futures contracts has reached its highest level in six weeks, indicating a reduction in supply in Europe.
According to the agency, disruptions at the CPC have had a significant impact on supply, hampering Kazakhstan's oil production capabilities.
Of the 45 initially planned shipments of Kazakh oil, at least 21 have been canceled. This reduction is due to constant disruptions at the terminal, the publication notes.
According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Kazakhstan produced about 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The country's ability to export oil via other routes is about half the volume shipped by CPC, which means that prolonged restrictions could negatively affect production.
Traders said that supply disruptions have led to reduced availability of CPC Blend oil, resulting in price differentials turning positive for the first time in a year. Recently, one such batch was sold at a premium of $1.20 per barrel to Brent, while most negotiations were conducted at a price 60-80 cents above the benchmark.
This also contributed to the growth of premiums for European oil compared to Middle Eastern grades. The gap between Brent and Dubai oil prices reached $1.55 per barrel.
According to Bloomberg, Kazakhstan usually accounts for about 90% of CPC shipments. Russian suppliers account for approximately 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), although these volumes have fallen sharply after drone strikes damaged Lukoil's facilities in the Caspian Sea.
On January 13, the Ministry of Energy confirmed a temporary decline in oil shipments through the CPC in December. To minimize the impact of these factors on the industry and prevent production stoppages, exports were redistributed. Transportation via the Atyrau-Samara oil pipeline and to China increased.
KazMunayGas reported that due to CPC restrictions, in December, it redirected about 300,000 tons of oil to the pipeline system of KazTransOil JSC (KTO) towards Germany, China, the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan oil pipeline (BTJ), as well as the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga. The national company plans to do the same in January.
According to KMG, in 2025, Kazakh oil exports to Germany will increase by 40% compared to 2024, reaching 2.1 million tons.
Oil supplies via the BTJ pipeline amounted to 1.3 million tons, while exports to China reached 1.1 million tons.
Oil prices rose
On Friday, January 16, oil prices rose slightly as supply risks remain relevant. The price of Brent rose 50 cents to $64.26 per barrel, showing growth for the fourth week in a row. US West Texas Intermediate rose 48 cents to $59.67 per barrel.
Both indices reached multi-month highs this week after protests broke out in Iran and US President Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of military strikes, Reuters notes.
According to experts, any escalation of the conflict with Iran will raise concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 million barrels per day pass.
At the same time, analysts expect supply to grow this year. And if there is no real revival in demand in China or a significant restriction on oil supplies, oil prices may remain within a certain range. At the same time, the price of Brent will fluctuate between $57 and $67 per barrel.
Police are investigating
Meanwhile, on December 17, Mazhilis deputies and members of the Amanat faction, Aidos Sarym, Bolat Kerimbek, and Sergey Ponomarev, submitted a parliamentary inquiry to Prosecutor General Berik Asylov and Minister of Culture and Information Aida Balaeva.
They note that “the reduction in oil transportation volumes (via the CPC) entails significant economic risks and losses for the country.”
“Annual export revenues flowing through the CPC amount to approximately $30 billion. Of this amount, one-third goes to the National Fund of Kazakhstan, accounting for about 20% of the country's tax revenues. According to expert estimates, potential monthly losses during prolonged downtime could reach $500 million,” they wrote in their request.
The Mazhilis members argue that “the current situation has not only revealed external risks, but also exposed internal problems that require an immediate response from state authorities.”
“Posts are appearing on social media from citizens openly approving and supporting attacks on this infrastructure, which is critical to the state. Such actions clearly go beyond the constitutional right to freedom of speech and directly harm national interests,” the deputies believe.
In this regard, they asked officials to “provide a legal assessment of the actions of citizens who publicly call for attacks on infrastructure facilities that are critical to Kazakhstan.” They also asked officials to consider classifying these actions under Article 256 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (propaganda of terrorism or public calls for acts of terrorism) and Article 175 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (high treason). Also, organize a broad awareness campaign among the population about the inadmissibility of disseminating public information containing calls for the destruction of oil pipelines and other infrastructure that is critical to ensuring the country's economic security.
On December 29, Prosecutor General Asylov replied that on December 17, 2025, the Astana Police Department launched a pre-trial investigation under Part 1 of Article 174 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (inciting ethnic hatred) into negative statements made by citizens regarding damage to the CPC.
“During the pre-trial investigation, measures were taken to identify these individuals and collect evidence of their guilt, based on which their actions will be given a final classification and a procedural decision will be made,” said the head of the supervisory authority.
At the same time, according to him, the Prosecutor General's Office had previously issued a press release warning against the dissemination of false information and other publications in the media with illegal content, as well as the criminal and administrative liability for such actions.
He also said that local prosecutors were conducting similar explanatory work with citizens on an ongoing basis, adding that the Ministry of Culture and Information was also conducting explanatory work among the population through the mass media.